Simpson’s Paradox
An association in aggregated data can differ from, or reverse, the associations within relevant groups because the groups have different sizes or exposure patterns.
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Comment: Understanding Simpson’s Paradox
Research-assisted source review
- What it supports
- No purely statistical property identifies the correct adjustment in every case; the causal relation between treatment, outcome and the third variable determines the relevant comparison.
- Where it may not transfer
- Causal diagrams encode assumptions rather than prove them. The commentary is conceptual and does not validate a specific product analytics workflow.
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