Base Rate Fallacy

People disregard statistical information in favour of specific anecdotes or vivid examples, even when the statistics are more reliable.
touch_app
Usability and Interaction
sentiment_very_satisfied

Encourages focus on key metrics rather than misleading exceptions.

sentiment_sad

Users may misinterpret data if not contextualised properly.

Best paired with

Progressive Disclosure
Gradually presenting statistical context reduces misjudgments.
Feedback Loop
Users refine decision-making by adjusting to real-time statistics.
View more pairings
search
Search
arrow_upward_alt
Conversion
arrow_upward_alt
Task Success
arrow_upward_alt
Decision-Making
arrow_downward_alt
Cognitive Load

Unlock actionable insights to take your product experience to the next level

Sign up now
checklist
Optimisations to get you started
Actionable suggestions for how to best use ingredients to improve your product experience.
sentiment_sad
Avoid negative impact
Actionable suggestions for how to best use ingredients to improve your product experience.
menu_book
Build your own resource
Add your go-to ingredients and cocktails to your menu for faster access later on.

The Study

Base Rate Fallacy explores how individuals' decisions and perceptions are influenced by underlying psychological mechanisms. Research on this bias has revealed its role in everyday behaviours and decision-making processes. Studies often involve experiments where participants' reactions are observed to determine the bias's impact. This understanding helps designers and marketers craft more effective, user-centric experiences.

The result

The results indicate that base rate fallacy significantly influences decision-making by altering perception, recall, or emotional response. These findings provide valuable insights into cognitive behaviour, informing design strategies.

Actionable tips

1.

Present statistical data clearly for better decisions.

2.

Use relatable examples to illustrate probabilities.

3.

Avoid anecdotal evidence that skews perception.

Ingredient pairings

sentiment_very_satisfied

Best pairings

add_circle

Progressive Disclosure

Encourages reliance on data rather than anecdotal examples.
add_circle

Feedback Loop

Supports rational assessment and learning from updated data.
add_circle

Choice Architecture

Encourages users to weigh base rates over isolated cases.
add_circle

Nudge

Minimises emotional biases while preserving autonomy.
sentiment_extremely_dissatisfied

Worst pairings

add_circle

Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)

Exploits emotional responses at the cost of rational judgment.
add_circle

Scarcity Principle

Leverages probability distortion to create artificial urgency.
add_circle

Confirmation Bias

Reinforces misperceptions rather than encouraging critical thinking.
add_circle

Authority Bias

Encourages blind trust over data-driven reasoning.

Cocktails with this ingredient

There are no cocktails that currently contain this ingredient